From last lesson, at speed
Six sentences. Each claims more or less than the note says is known.
1. The study proves that the scheme works. — one study, two cities
2. The reduction was 18%. — the interval ran from 11 to 24
3. It works everywhere. — measured only where kerbside recycling already existed
4. Families with young children do not respond. — no significant change was detected in that group
5. I think it may possibly perhaps help a bit.
6. Everyone knows these schemes fail.
Three families
And one verb that is not hedging at all
The instruments sort into three grammatical families, and knowing which one you are reaching into is most of the skill. Modals — may, might, could — do probability, and only probability. Lexical verbs — seem, appear, tend, suggest, indicate — reach fact, evidence, frequency and source, which is why academic prose leans on them so heavily. Adverbs — probably, apparently, arguably, largely, roughly — attach to whatever they sit next to, which makes them precise and dangerous in equal measure.
Seem and appear are close and not identical. Appear is the more evidential of the two: it points at what the data looks like, and it is at home in a paper. Seem permits a subjective reading, and it seems to me is explicitly one — which is why it appears to me sounds faintly wrong. In writing, appears is usually the safer choice.
Both have two structures, and they are not equivalent. It seems that emissions have fallen puts the whole clause under the hedge. Emissions appear to have fallen lifts the subject out of the clause and hedges what is said about it. That second version is the one academic English prefers, because it keeps the topic in the subject slot where a reader expects to find it — and because a paragraph of sentences all starting it seems that loses its thread by the third one.
And then tend to, which almost everybody misfiles. Cities of this size tend to have worse air quality contains no doubt whatsoever. It is a confident claim about a pattern, with the exceptions built into the verb rather than apologised for afterwards. That makes it the most useful instrument on the whole list: it is the only one that limits the scope of a claim without weakening it.
Three questions.
1. What do modal hedges reach?
2. Why does academic English prefer emissions appear to have fallen?
3. How much doubt does tend to express?
Three families, seven slots
The three families
| Family | Members | What they can reach |
|---|---|---|
| Modal | may · might · could · would · can | Probability only. The figure may be an underestimate. |
| Lexical verb | seem · appear · tend · suggest · indicate · imply | Fact, evidence, frequency and source — the workhorses of academic prose. |
| Adverb | probably · possibly · apparently · arguably · presumably · largely · broadly · roughly | Whatever they sit next to. Precise when placed carefully, misleading when not. |
| Noun and adjective | the possibility that · one interpretation · a likely explanation · an apparent increase | Fact and source, and useful when you need to name a claim in order to discuss it. |
| Frame | it would appear that · on the evidence available · as far as we can tell · to date | The whole sentence, and the limits of the whole evidence base. |
The seven slots, and what reaches each
| Slot | Reach it with |
|---|---|
| Fact | it seems that · it would appear that · there is some evidence that |
| Evidence | X appears to · X seems to · the data suggest that |
| Probability | may · might · could · probably · is likely to |
| Frequency | tend to · generally · typically · in most cases |
| Scope | in industrialised economies · among adults · at this scale · largely |
| Source | according to · one study found · the 2021 review reported |
| Magnitude | roughly · in the region of · at least · no more than |
Two structures, and they are not the same sentence.
It seems that emissions have fallen. — the whole clause sits under the hedge.
Emissions appear to have fallen. — the subject is lifted out and what is said about it is hedged. This is the version academic writing prefers.
And the subjective frame: it seems to me is good English and explicitly personal. It appears to me is not, because appear points at evidence rather than at a person.
Out loud. A hedge is said flat, at speed, and unstressed. Stressing it — it MAY be an underestimate — turns a piece of calibration into a warning, and often into sarcasm. The hedge is part of the claim, not a comment on it.
Rewrite each sentence using the word given, so that it claims exactly what the note supports.
Air quality has definitely improved. (the monitoring data point that way) APPEAR
I am fairly sure the published figure is too low. LIKELY
Cities of this size always have worse air quality. (not always — usually) TEND
The figure fell by four per cent. (one study says so, and it is the only one) ACCORDING
The fall was eighteen per cent, or thereabouts. ROUGHLY
This has only ever been measured in industrialised economies. HOLDS
It is possible that the effect is seasonal. MAY
From the evidence we currently have, the scheme works. EVIDENCE
Five questions.
1. Which family can reach the source of a claim?
2. Which does academic writing prefer?
3. Which is correct?
4. What does tend to limit?
5. How is a hedge said aloud?
A paragraph for a committee
Eight gaps. Choose the instrument that reaches the right slot.
Cycling in the city has risen since the network was extended, though the size of the rise on how it is counted. Automatic counters at eleven sites an increase of about a third since 2019. The rise to be concentrated on the three routes that were physically separated from traffic; on painted lanes the counts are unchanged. Cities that separate cycle lanes to see larger increases than those that do not, so this is not a surprising result. one survey, the main reason given by new cyclists is a perception of safety rather than journey time — although a single survey of 400 people be treated as settled. On the evidence available it that separation, rather than provision as such, is doing the work.
Six lines of one paragraph, out of order. Put them into the order that builds a claim.
- On the evidence available, then, the tariff seems to have worked and may not keep working.
- According to the utility’s own figures, average consumption is down by roughly eight per cent.
- What has not been tested is whether the same design would hold in areas without metering.
- Household water use in the region appears to have fallen since the tariff changed.
- Areas of this kind tend to show a rebound in the second and third years.
- The fall is concentrated in the highest-consuming quartile, and is not detectable in the lowest.
One claim, seven slots
Task card · Speaking · Pairs · 8 minutes
One environmental claim each that you actually believe and would defend — about transport, food, energy, waste, water, land.
Say it seven times, filling one slot each time. Then decide which two are load-bearing.
- State it once, unhedged. That is the version you would say in a pub.
- Then fill each slot in turn: fact, evidence, probability, frequency, scope, source, magnitude. Say all seven aloud even where a slot feels unnecessary.
- Your partner’s job: after each one, say what has changed about what you are claiming.
- Then choose two. Which two slots, if left unfilled, would actually mislead somebody? Those are the ones you keep. The rest are optional, and in speech they are usually noise.
Which two you kept
Two questions.
1. Which slots turned out to be load-bearing for your claim?
2. What happened to the unhedged version once you had said the other seven?
Reach the right slot
Two questions. Twenty seconds.
1. What can a modal hedge reach?
2. Which instrument limits scope without weakening the claim?
Next. How much is too much — the stacking problem, the genres that want more hedging and the genres that want less, and the sentence that hedges so hard it stops claiming anything.