How sure is sure
Think of one thing you are certain will happen in the next five years, and one thing you think might. Hold both. Do not say them yet.
Then sort the eight below. English marks the difference between these with very small words, and most of them are one syllable.
Eight ways of talking about the future. Match each to roughly how sure the speaker is.
Two people, same question
Rafa · asked what his city will look like in ten years
The port will close. Everybody knows it, nobody says it. It will close and about four thousand people will have to find something else.
What happens after that, I do not know. It might become flats. It may become nothing at all — that has happened in other towns near here.
What I am sure about is that my daughter will not stay. When she finishes school she will go, and honestly I hope she does.
Sun-hee · same question, different city
Everyone says the rents will keep going up, and they probably will, but I am not certain. Two years ago everyone said the opposite.
The new line might open in 2032. It might not. If it opens, the whole east side changes; if it does not, nothing changes at all.
I would like to still be here in ten years. Whether I will be is a different question.
Five questions about the two texts. Read for how sure each speaker is, not for what they predict.
1. Rafa says The port will close. How sure is he?
2. He then says It might become flats. What has changed?
3. When she finishes school she will go. Why is finishes not will finish?
4. Sun-hee says If it opens, the whole east side changes. What does if tell you?
5. Rafa uses when about his daughter; Sun-hee uses if about the new line. Why the different word?
One line, six points on it
The certainty scale
| How sure | What you say | Roughly |
|---|---|---|
| Certain | It will definitely happen. It is bound to. | 95%+ |
| Likely | It will probably happen. I expect it will. | 75% |
| Possible | It might happen. It may happen. It could happen. | 50% |
| Unlikely | It probably won’t happen. I doubt it. | 25% |
| Ruled out | It definitely won’t happen. There is no chance. | under 5% |
| Hoped for, not predicted | I hope it happens. I would like it to. | not a prediction at all |
Six sentences. Put them in order from most certain to least certain.
Saying how sure you are
One to three words per gap. Each sentence tells you how sure the speaker is — use it.
The shop close in March; the notice is already in the window. The council build flats there, or they leave it empty — nobody knows yet. My sister says she move away, but she has said that for eight years. And the bus route change, because they announced last week that it will not.
Six sentences about the future. One error each.
1. I think it will to rain later.
2. When I will finish this course, I will look for a job.
3. She might to come tomorrow.
4. What do you think will happen? — I think that will happen nothing.
5. He will probably not to agree.
6. Do you think will it snow?
Ninety seconds on ten years
Task card · Speaking · Diagnostic · 90 seconds each
Your partner asks: what will your city — or your town, or your street — look like in ten years?
Ninety seconds, with at least three predictions at three different levels of certainty.
- One thing you are certain about, and say why you are certain.
- One thing you think is only possible. Use might or may.
- One thing you are ruling out.
- Finish with one thing you hope for, and mark it clearly as a hope rather than a prediction.
Listener’s job. Do not just listen. You have two things to do:
1. Write each prediction on the scale — certain, likely, possible, unlikely, ruled out — as you hear it.
2. Ask two questions at the end. Both must begin Do you think… or What do you think…
Those two question shapes are the hardest thing in this unit, and asking them badly now is useful.
What ninety seconds produced
Five sentences of the kind this task always produces. Fix each.
1. If it will rain, we will stay at home.
2. I think will be very different in ten years.
3. What you think about the new road?
4. Maybe they will building more flats.
5. I hope that will happen, but I am not sure it happens.
What this unit is for
Three questions.
1. Which is more certain?
2. When I ___ home, I will call you.
3. Which question is correctly formed?
Before next lesson. Find one prediction somebody made in public — a news headline, a weather forecast, somebody on the radio. Write down their exact words.
Next lesson we look at how confident people allow themselves to sound in public, which is less confident than you would expect.